Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.056501 2.161597 2.273993 2.404040 2.551552 2.715170 2.912557
2025-08-17 1.932300 2.064432 2.211142 2.388377 2.599983 2.849170 3.172536
2025-08-24 1.846737 1.995210 2.164439 2.375388 2.637240 2.960752 3.407700
2025-08-31 1.781219 1.941252 2.127468 2.365576 2.670976 3.064560 3.641075
2025-09-07 1.739348 1.910736 2.114005 2.380257 2.732852 3.207214 3.947393
2025-09-14 1.664333 1.835620 2.040734 2.312755 2.679113 3.183651 3.999851
2025-09-21 1.625648 1.802459 2.016937 2.306204 2.704981 3.272738 4.241783
2025-09-28 1.578156 1.756053 1.973743 2.270763 2.686984 3.293960 4.372686
2025-10-05 1.567652 1.754886 1.987434 2.311130 2.778013 3.489252 4.855634
2025-10-12 1.565070 1.763145 2.013082 2.368624 2.898264 3.747402 5.548632
2025-10-19 1.537498 1.738130 1.993520 2.361287 2.919435 3.842093 5.928978
2025-10-26 1.513502 1.716757 1.977690 2.357969 2.945920 3.948889 6.382453
2025-11-02 1.469620 1.669238 1.926382 2.302976 2.889708 3.903952 6.442518
2025-11-09 1.443311 1.643859 1.904010 2.288839 2.898001 3.980914 6.884381
2025-11-16 1.419564 1.621037 1.884137 2.277105 2.908899 4.064097 7.399294
2025-11-23 1.398267 1.600763 1.866919 2.268242 2.923548 4.156754 8.019943
2025-11-30 1.385848 1.591800 1.864816 2.281700 2.976812 4.338538 9.175637
2025-12-07 1.349304 1.549608 1.815041 2.220127 2.894958 4.214622 8.874945
2025-12-14 1.332583 1.533711 1.801728 2.214181 2.911017 4.312151 9.760985
2025-12-21 1.308103 1.506789 1.772124 2.181772 2.877698 4.292627 10.026404
2025-12-28 1.306735 1.511054 1.786677 2.218756 2.972426 4.591109 12.864214
2026-01-04 1.309958 1.521553 1.810350 2.271299 3.101452 5.014405 19.738847
2026-01-11 1.295503 1.507344 1.797784 2.264628 3.116193 5.137089 24.923497